Super Bowl Prop Bets to Ruin Your Sunday

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If you are like me and your favorite team is not in the Super Bowl (fuckin’ Steelers), you are probably in need of some sort of excitement to get you through the day other than a bowl of Tostitos and the dip your friend’s girlfriend brought.

Boy, do I have a solution for you: prop bets! The perfect way to bet on specific outcomes you know nothing about in hopes of winning a small amount of money that will validate those seven IPAs you chugged.

Here are a collection of bets backed by surface-level research that I find particularly delicious this Sunday.

Bust out that checkbook, cause you about to get PAID.

Quick explanation of American odds such as -115. A negative number indicates the amount you must bet to make $100 profit, and a positive number indicates how much you might profit if you bet $100. -115 means you must bet $115 to make $100. +115 means you make $115 if you bet $100.

Tom Brady longest completion O/U (over/under) 38.5

My pick: UNDER (-115)  

Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his longest completions were 21, 23, and 28, respectively. In the Eagles last three games this season, the longest completions they have allowed are 33, 24, and 30.

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Tom Brady Total Pass Attempts O/U 40

My pick: OVER (-115)

Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his attempt totals finished at 41, 50, and 62, respectively.

 

Tom Brady Total Completions O/U 26.5

My pick: OVER (-130)

Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his completion totals finished at 27, 37, and 43.

 

Tom Brady Total Passing Yards O/U 294.5

My pick: OVER (-115)

Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his yard totals are 276, 328, and 466.

 

Will Tom Brady Throw a First Quarter Touchdown

My pick: NO (-185)

Research: In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have never scored a single point in the first quarter in any of their seven Super Bowls.

 

Which Half will Tom Brady Have More Passing Yards

My pick: SECOND (-150)

Research: Watch literally any Patriots game.

 

Dion Lewis Total Receptions O/U 4.5

My pick: OVER (-175)

The Eagles surrendered six catches to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman against Atlanta, and 11 catches to Jerick McKinnon against the Vikings. Dion Lewis caught seven and nine passes in the Patriots last two games. My only worry here is that James White eats into Dion’s totals.

 

Danny Amendola Total Receptions O/U 4.5

My pick: OVER (-145)

Research: This playoffs, Amendola has caught 11 balls on 13 targets and seven balls on nine targets.

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Eagles vs. Patriots First Half Line

My Pick: EAGLES +3 (-125)

Last seven Patriot Super Bowl Halftime Scores

  • 2016: Falcons 21 Patriots 3
  • 2014: Seahawks 14 Patriots 14
  • 2011: Patriots 10 Giants 9
  • 2007: Patriots 7 Giants 3
  • 2004: Eagles 7 Patriots 7
  • 2001: Patriots 14 Rams 3

The team playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl has covered a first half line of +3 in five of the seven games.

 

Super Bowl MVP

My pick: TOM BRADY (-140)

If you’re in the mindset that the Patriots are winning this game, -140 is an extremely reasonable bet on someone who is a near guarantee to receive this award in the case of a victory.

 

Patriots – Total Second Half Points (OT Included) O/U 13.5

My pick: OVER 13.5 POINTS (-130)

Research: Patriots second-half point totals in the Super Bowl since Josh McDaniels has been Offensive Coordinator: 

  • 2016: 31 points
  • 2014: 14 points

 

Will Either Team Score 4 Straight Times w/o Other Team Scoring (Conversions Excluded)

My pick: NO (-300)

Research: This just seems like a ridiculous occurrence. Gimme the -300.

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FAVORITE BET: COIN TOSS

My pick: TAILS (-102)

Research: In the previous 51 Super Bowls, tails has the advantage, 27-24. This is due to the way the head side of the coin is molded. To create the shape of the head engraved into the coin, a small percentage of metal is added to the head-side, creating a small weight imbalance, causing the heavier head-side to land face down more often and the tail-side face up…

…not really lol. The 27-24 stat is true though. Tails never fails.

Fixing the NFL for Dummies

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Photo: © USA Today Sports

I am 23 years old. I have never held any position of status for any sports-related business in my life. I thought about this list for approximately 11 minutes, yet I feel I have solved more problems than Goodell, the owners, and the NFLPA have in a decade.

I have categorized this list into three distinct categories: The Honestly How Have We Not Done This Yet?, the Reasonable Request’s, and the Okay, This Might Be A Stretch, But Is It??

Honestly How Have We Not Done This Yet?

Two Bye Weeks

One more week a season for players to rest their bodies, plus one more week of football for all the degenerate football fans out there who want more. Not to mention the added revenue of ticket sales/concessions/tv money/advertising that comes with an extra week. Who loses?

No More Kickoffs 

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the inherent danger that lies in kickoffs. It is the only time in a game where two teams sprint toward each other from opposite ends of the field using their heads as spears.  

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Photo: © Getty Images

In 2016, the NFL adjusted the touchback rule in an attempt to reduce kickoff-related injuries, letting teams get the ball at the 25-yard line instead of the 20. This resulted in a 2 per cent increase in touchbacks last season. In other words, not enough. Patriots coach Bill Belichick mentioned that concussions still happen on touchbacks because players still sprint and block as if the returner is going to bring the ball out of the end zone. 

The exhilaration of a kickoff return for a touchdown does not compensate for the brutal consequences of a high-speed collision. One team scores, cut to commercial, and start the next drive at the 25-yard line. Come on, folks, this is easy.

Goodbye Pro Bowl, Hello Skills Competition

When is the last time anyone watched the Pro Bowl, heard a relevant story (besides someone getting injured) regarding the Pro Bowl, or heard the words “Awesome,” “Fun,” “Entertaining,” or “Cool,” and “Pro Bowl” in the same sentence?

Each year, this painfully insignificant event attempts to fill the football void between conference championships and the Super Bowl. The actual game, however, littered with All-Stars (players looking for an easy paycheck), offers no level of competition. The stakes are so low that players often play at half speed, ease up on tackles, and avoid diving catches. And why shouldn’t they? Why risk spending the few months of offseason you have recovering from a pointless injury?

MY SOLUTION: The First Annual NFL Skills Competition

Let’s gather the freak athletes we love and adore, and pit them against each other gameshow style? This can take place over a full weekend, like the NBA and MLB All-Star weekends, and will feature marquee events such as The Quarterback Catch, where QBs must run routes and catch passes from other quarterbacks. Bonus round, you can only use one hand! There will also be The 50 Yard Sprint, where the league’s fastest players are matched up in a bragging rights showdown. Position Swap, where QBs become the wide receivers/cornerbacks and wide receivers become quarterbacks in 2-on-2 mini games. Das Boot, where kickers prove who can kick a 70-yarder. 3-on-3, where three players from each team play a pickup basketball game to 11. Have them play Flip Cup, Jeopardy, go on freaking Chopped, I don’t care. The possibilities are endless!

Reasonable Requests

No More Overtime (except for playoffs)

Four quarters of pounding helmets like bumper cars is long enough. The NFL has reduced the run of overtime from 15 minutes to 10, but yet again the results are negligible.

Plus, by cancelling overtime, there is potential for much more drama/horrible clock mismanagement at the end of the fourth quarter. Get ready for a lot more Hail Marys and 30-second drills, and a lot less kneeling with 18 seconds left to force overtime on 1st-and-10 when the score is 17-17.

Allow PED Use For Recovery

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Photo: © USA Today Sports

For years players have been pleading for a rule change regarding the prohibition of PEDs. Yes, using PEDs without regulation is inherently dangerous and unfair. But it is time the NFL recognizes the benefits of PED use to help athletes recover more efficiently. Under a doctor’s guidance, with proper dosage, strictly for the purpose of healing, our favorite players would be back in the game we love to watch them play.

In the 1930s, football players were smashing heads wearing leather helmets and long-sleeve t-shirts. Now, players are equipped with shock absorbent helmets and pads, superglue gloves and hyper-traction cleats. Why must we ignore the advancements in medicine if we have acknowledged the advancements in everything else?

Okay, This Might Be A Stretch, But Is It??

Every Healthy Player from Every Team Must Sit for One Game a Season

Initially, this sounds ludicrous. “Sit Russell Wilson when he’s healthy? That’s not football!” If, for a second, we imagine all the rule changes I have suggested above are implemented in the 2018 season, including this one, each NFL player will now be given three weeks of rest out of 18. Think about it.

Let’s take Pittsburgh’s quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. In the 2018 season, under these new rules, let’s say the Steelers have a bye in Week 5 and Week 11. In Week 14, Pittsburgh has a matchup with the putrid Browns and they decide to rest Ben and give their backup a shot. That gives Ben three weeks of rest in a 10-week span, while only really missing one game from a fan’s perspective (something he has done 11 out of 14 seasons). Isn’t forcing Ben to sit one game worth risking him missing a handful (Ben has missed at least three games five separate times in his career)? Not only does this give an unprecedented amount of time for rest and recovery to the athletes, which almost guarantees higher performance and longer careers, but imagine all the added drama into figuring out when is the best time to sit your superstar. Do you rest all your starters in one game when you play the Jets and hope for a win? Or do you sit one or two players each week? A Brady-less/Gronk-less Patriots versus the Jets in Week 6? Things just got a lot more interesting!