1. Aaron Rodgers – He’s Aaron Rodgers.
2. Tom Brady – Torched the Texans last season to the tune of 378 yards and five touchdowns. Should be shootout with DeShaun Watson.
3. DeShaun Watson – Didn’t have Will Fuller the last time he played New England, and still dropped 341 total yards and two touchdowns.
4. Drew Brees – New Orleans will have their way with Tampa Bay, and no CB Brent Grimes is only insult to injury.
5. Cam Newton – Dallas’ defensive line will give the Panther’s injured line trouble, but his best supporting cast and rushing capabilities keep Cam a great play.
6. Matt Stafford – I think the Jets young defense will ascend this season, but Stafford will catch them at the right time with his most well-rounded cast yet.
7. Kirk Cousins – The Niners best pass defender is a 30-year-old coming off an Achilles’ injury.
8. Russell Wilson – I’m high on Wilson this year, but I’m not ready to rank him too high until he proves he can maintain his play with Doug Baldwin and…Jaron Brown?
9. Jared Goff – The Raiders secondary is composed of players way past their prime, with zero pass rush. Game script is the only thing holding back Goff.
10. Andy Dalton – The Bengals secretly have some of the best weapons in football. He’ll be throwing against a team that is relying on storebrand cornerbacks Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore
11. Philip Rivers – Going against one of the worst secondaries in football with an over/under of 48.5.
12. Ben Roethlisberger – Normally any quarterback going against the Browns pass D is a must-start, but the weather in Cleveland scares me.
1. Todd Gurley – Todd Gurley will destroy the Raiders with receptions in the first half, and put them away by milking the clock in the second half. There’s a decent chance this is his best game of the season.
2. Alvin Kamara – Dropped 280 total yards and three touchdowns in two meetings last season. Essentially zero competition for workload.
3. Melvin Gordon – The Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in football. Receiving usage will be boosted in a shootout.
4. David Johnson – Running will be tough going against a healthy Alabama duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, but the offense will still run through DFJ, on the air or the ground.
5. Ezekiel Elliott – Gets a boost from LB Thomas Davis’ suspension, and 25+ touches a game make up for any injuries on the offensive line.
6. Leonard Fournette – Increased usage in the passing game + Giants signing horrible coverage linebacker Alec Ogletree x positive game script = potential to be the RB1 in Week 1.
7. Kareem Hunt – Per Evan Silva, the Chargers D yielded the 13th-most receptions to running backs last season.
8. Christian McCaffrey – Already looked like a league winner in the preseason, and the Cowboys allowed the sixth-most receptions to RBs last year.
9. Joe Mixon – The Colts were one the worst teams in football against running backs last year, a perfect catalyst to Mixon’s breakout year.
10. Saquon Barkley – This will be Barkley’s hardest matchup all year. Fresh legs and volume are the only things keeping him this high.
11. Alex Collins – Looking at the best game script of any back this week, and goes against a Bills run D that went to the shitter after trading away Marcell Dareus.
12. Jordan Howard – In what figures to be a shootout, we’ll finally get to see if Nagy’s talk of Howard’s increased passing game usage is the real thing or just smoke and mirrors.
13. LeSean McCoy – Volume trumps anything else going against McCoy this week, which is…everything.
14. Rex Burkhead – Will be used a ton in the passing against against a defense that’s returning JJ Watt and
15. Jamaal Williams – The Packers like to use one running back at a time, and right now Williams is the guy. Mack figures to be used sparingly.
16. Kenyan Drake – League-winning upside in the long term, but that’s if we know what the deal is with Frank Gore. That’s what this week is for.
17. Lamar Miller – Figures to be an every-down back with a ton of receiving upside against New England’s porous defense.
18. James Conner – DC Greg Williams sole goal is to stop the run, and while that may not be smart in terms of real football, it is an unfortunate obstacle for Conner’s first professional start.
19. Dalvin Cook – I think the Vikings will plan to ease Cook in with a 50/50 split to start the season. A lot of the offense should go through the air against the Niners.
20. Marshawn Lynch – The loss of Rams’ ILB Mark Barron is a good sign, but this game could get ugly quick.
21. Royce Freeman – While the timeshare with Booker hasn’t been great, Freeman has earned every right to get 65%+ of Denver’s backfield touches.
22. Derrick Henry – Figures to get out-snap Dion Lewis with positive gamescript.
23. Carlos Hyde – Has held off Nick Chubb so far, and figures to be the focal point of the Browns offense in a storm that might include 40+ MPH wind.
24. Adrian Peterson – Fresh legs running behind a healthy Redskins line. Will lose passing downs to Chris Thompson.
25. Chris Carson – Denver has an elite run defense that just added Bradley Chubb, but Carson is the only trustworthy back in Seattles backfield right now.
26. Peyton Barber – Should get the start, but is in danger of losing third-down touches to Jacquizz Rodgers.
27. Dion Lewis – Passing down back with early-down capabilities.
28. Chris Thompson – Will receive a ton of passing work, but might get eased in.
29. Kerryon Johnson – The Jets have a middling run defense, and Johnson is the most talented in this backfield. I just think it’s going to take some time before he gets the lions share (haha) of touches.
30. Jordan Wilkins – This is a dart throw. He’s the most talented of the bunch.
31. Bilal Powell – Preseason suggests he’ll be the Jets’ lead back. Preseason also suggests the Lions have a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense.
32. Alfred Morris – Not a sexy pick, but he’s the favorite to lead the Niners in carries. Just won’t be a great week against the Vikings spotless defense.
33. Matt Breida – Should get the change-of-pace role, may have earned a stronger role than suggested.
34. Duke Johnson – Gets knocked due to poor weather.
35. Giovani Bernard – Should get 7-10 touches.
36. James White – The healthiest player in the Patriots backfield. Dark horse to lead them in touches in Week 1.
37. Ty Montgomery – Supreme talent. Might be used as a passing down back.
38. Devontae Booker – Sub-par talent. Is the passing down back.
39. Tarik Cohen – Huge question mark heading into Week 1, but has Tyreek Hill upside.
40. Theo Riddick – Huge bump in full PPR.
42. Legarrette Blount – One of the best goal line backs in football.
43. CJ Anderson – Could steal a touchdown or two.
44. Javorius Allen – Solidified role as passing down back.
45. Frank Gore – What are you doing, Miami?
46. Doug Martin – Stinks.
47. Christine Michael – Not sure if he’s real.
48. Jeremy Hill – Bill hates your fantasy team.
1. AJ Green – Tell me the name of one Colts cornerback. Until then, Green stays second to kick off the season. (Ignore my Andy Dalton post)
2. DeAndre Hopkins – Stephon Gilmore is looking like an elite corner, but any game with DeShaun Watson automatically puts Nuk in top-five territory.
3. Antonio Brown – No Le’Veon and HoF talent negate any concerns about weather.
4. Keenan Allen – The Chiefs will essentially trot out four slot cornerbacks in Week 1.
5. Michael Thomas – Vernon Hargreaves doesn’t stand a chance against Thomas and the Saints passing offense.
6. Stefon Diggs – Always a hot starter, and what better start than a cornerback who runs in quicksand?
7. Odell Beckham Jr. – The Jaguars defense is always scary, but a Jaylen Ramsey ankle injury helps Beckham’s outlook.
8. Adam Thielen – If you haven’t noticed, the Niners pass D is bad.
9. Davante Adams – The Bears D is ready for liftoff, but being Rodgers favorite target is matchup proof.
10. Larry Fitzgerald – Will be defended by something call a “Fabian Moreua.”
11. Chris Hogan – Expected to hog targets against a team he dropped 4/68/2 on last year.
12. Tyreek Hill – Hill’s speed paired with Mahomes’ arm essentially makes him an every-week WR1.
13. Doug Baldwin – Legitimately might get 15 targets. Knees and matchups be damned.
14. Brandin Cooks – Oakland’s lack of pass rush pairs perfectly with Cooks’ straight-line speed.
15. TY Hilton – WIlliam Jackson III will be a well-known name by the end of the season. You better hope the Colts put TY in the slot.
16. Mike Evans – Has had nasty splits against the Saints, matched up on Lattimore, and Fitz is still a downgrade.
17. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Any and all players who catch or throw a football in this game receive a major downgrade.
18. Josh Gordon – Freakish upside who gets extra downside in storm. Reporter claims “I have not seen a worse weather forecast for a Browns game in the almost 16 years I have been here and that includes snow events”
19. Allen Robinson – I’m higher on the Packer’s corners than most, and Trubisky still needs to develop rapport with Robinson.
20. Amari Cooper – I’m afraid of all Raiders in this matchup, and Ryan Switzer taking Cooper out of the slot is a bummer.
21. Robert Woods – Start. All. Rams.
22. Cooper Kupp – ^^^^
23. Emmanuel Sanders – Slot reps give Sanders the best matchup between him and Thomas.
24. Golden Tate – A matchup with Buster Skrine and sheer volume gives Tate the nod over Marvin Jones.
25. Marvin Jones – The Jets are secretly very talented on the outside.
26. Devin Funchess – Still the number one option out of Cam’s receivers, despite zero offseason buzz.
27. Demaryius Thomas – Figures to run against Shaq Griffin, which is a downgrade.
28. Jarvis Landry – A slot receiver against Pittsburgh’s zone defense is always a plus, but you know…wind.
29. Corey Davis – Mariota’s been a question mark in the preseason, and will go against ascending corner Xavien Howard.
30. Robby Anderson – Figures to match up with Darius Slay.
31. Jamison Crowder – Should avoid Patrick Peterson in the slot, but still don’t know Smith’s favorite target.
32. Randall Cobb – Rodger’s second favorite receiver. Yes, please.
33. John Brown – Has looked better than Crabtree this year, and is the healthiest he’s been in a while.
34. Michael Crabtree – Favorite for red zone targets.
35. Will Fuller – Upside is through the roof as long as he’s healthy…which he may not be.
36. Jordy Nelson – Still kinda iffy in this game, but a shootout is always possible.
37. Tyrell Williams – Underrated in every aspect heading into this season, Tyrell is a sneaky start this week.
38. Kenny Stills – Could be the Dolphins number-one option with no Devante Parker.
39. Rishard Matthews – Figures to benefit from no Xavien Howard.
40. Keelan Cole – Number-one option on a run-first team. Should lead the Jaguars in targets in Week 1.
41. Marquise Goodwin – Vikings will probably have the best defense in football this year.
42. Quincy Enunwa – Oversized slot receiver who may lead the Jets in targets this week.
43. John Ross – The Bengals offense will be on full display against the sieve-like Colts D.
44. Kelvin Benjamin – Literally SOMEONE has to catch a pass for the Bills.
45. Allen Hurns – Literally SOMEONE has to catch a pass for the Cowboys.
46. Sterling Shepard – Could benefit as the least-covered option on the Giants.
47. Dede Westbrook – Has the easiest matchup against B.W. Webb.
48. Ted Ginn – Always a threat for a big play and might be Saints second option.
49. Pierre Garcon – Not very high on Garcon in general, and coming back from a neck injury to face to the Vikings in Minnesota is an ugly welcome back.
50. Sammy Watkins – Zero connection with Mahomes in the preseason.
51. Kenny Golladay – Golladay games will come this season, but that is not this day!!!
52. Chris Godwin – Fitzpatrick is bad.
53. Donte Moncrief – Slow as hell but he scores touchdowns.
54. Phillip Dorsett – Someone else on the Patriots might catch a pass.
55. DeSean Jackson – Still fast.
56. Anthony Miller – Looked cool in the preseason.
57. Michael Gallup – Also looked cool in the preseason.
1. Rob Gronkowski – Every game Gronk is healthy he is ranked first. Those are the rules.
*The Grand Canyon*
2. Travis Kelce – Doesn’t have a great history with the Chargers, but is one of the most talented tight ends in the league, so it doesn’t matter.
3. Jordan Reed – Will be a gamechanger before he goes to IR in Week 3.
4. Tyler Eifert – Will be a gamechanger before he goes to IR in Week 3.
5. Delanie Walker – Still Mariota’s favorite target.
6. Greg Olsen – Sean Lee is a concern, but still a safe pick.
7. Jimmy Graham – Ceiling is two touchdowns, floor is two targets.
8. Jack Doyle – Should absolutely dust Cincinnati. One of my favorite plays this week.
9. Trey Burton – Looked like Trubisky’s favorite target. Have you ever heard of the Philly Special?
10. Kyle Rudolph – Kirk Cousins loves his tight ends, and I’ll leave you to make a joke about that.
11. Evan Engram – Jaguars aren’t exactly forgiving to tight ends.
12. George Kittle – Vikings are so damn scary.
13. Austin Seferian-Jenkins – See “Ogletree, Alec.”
14. David Njoku – Have I mentioned the weather?
15. Charles Clay – Ravens are secretly susceptible to tight ends.
16. Ben Watson – Every Saint is going to get an opportunity.
17. Ricky Seals-Jones – Could be second on the Cardinals in targets.
18. Vance McDonald – If he’s healthy, no team is more giving to tight ends.
19. Jared Cook – Gruden loved Cook in the offseason.
20. OJ Howard – Talent is the only thing keeping him here.
21. Mike Gesicki – Rookie tight ends are slow to start, but Gesicki could be a TE1 by season’s end.
22. Antonio Gates – Red zone target, but he’ll have some rust to shake off.
23. Cameron Brate – He’s, ya know…there.
24. Eric Ebron – Eh.