If you are like me and your favorite team is not in the Super Bowl (fuckin’ Steelers), you are probably in need of some sort of excitement to get you through the day other than a bowl of Tostitos and the dip your friend’s girlfriend brought.
Boy, do I have a solution for you: prop bets! The perfect way to bet on specific outcomes you know nothing about in hopes of winning a small amount of money that will validate those seven IPAs you chugged.
Here are a collection of bets backed by surface-level research that I find particularly delicious this Sunday.
Bust out that checkbook, cause you about to get PAID.
Quick explanation of American odds such as -115. A negative number indicates the amount you must bet to make $100 profit, and a positive number indicates how much you might profit if you bet $100. -115 means you must bet $115 to make $100. +115 means you make $115 if you bet $100.
Tom Brady longest completion O/U (over/under) 38.5
My pick: UNDER (-115)
Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his longest completions were 21, 23, and 28, respectively. In the Eagles last three games this season, the longest completions they have allowed are 33, 24, and 30.
Tom Brady Total Pass Attempts O/U 40
My pick: OVER (-115)
Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his attempt totals finished at 41, 50, and 62, respectively.
Tom Brady Total Completions O/U 26.5
My pick: OVER (-130)
Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his completion totals finished at 27, 37, and 43.
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards O/U 294.5
My pick: OVER (-115)
Research: In Tom Brady’s previous three Super Bowls (’11, ’14, ’16), his yard totals are 276, 328, and 466.
Will Tom Brady Throw a First Quarter Touchdown
My pick: NO (-185)
Research: In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have never scored a single point in the first quarter in any of their seven Super Bowls.
Which Half will Tom Brady Have More Passing Yards
My pick: SECOND (-150)
Research: Watch literally any Patriots game.
Dion Lewis Total Receptions O/U 4.5
My pick: OVER (-175)
The Eagles surrendered six catches to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman against Atlanta, and 11 catches to Jerick McKinnon against the Vikings. Dion Lewis caught seven and nine passes in the Patriots last two games. My only worry here is that James White eats into Dion’s totals.
Danny Amendola Total Receptions O/U 4.5
My pick: OVER (-145)
Research: This playoffs, Amendola has caught 11 balls on 13 targets and seven balls on nine targets.
Eagles vs. Patriots First Half Line
My Pick: EAGLES +3 (-125)
Last seven Patriot Super Bowl Halftime Scores
- 2016: Falcons 21 Patriots 3
- 2014: Seahawks 14 Patriots 14
- 2011: Patriots 10 Giants 9
- 2007: Patriots 7 Giants 3
- 2004: Eagles 7 Patriots 7
- 2001: Patriots 14 Rams 3
The team playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl has covered a first half line of +3 in five of the seven games.
Super Bowl MVP
My pick: TOM BRADY (-140)
If you’re in the mindset that the Patriots are winning this game, -140 is an extremely reasonable bet on someone who is a near guarantee to receive this award in the case of a victory.
Patriots – Total Second Half Points (OT Included) O/U 13.5
My pick: OVER 13.5 POINTS (-130)
Research: Patriots second-half point totals in the Super Bowl since Josh McDaniels has been Offensive Coordinator:
- 2016: 31 points
- 2014: 14 points
Will Either Team Score 4 Straight Times w/o Other Team Scoring (Conversions Excluded)
My pick: NO (-300)
Research: This just seems like a ridiculous occurrence. Gimme the -300.
FAVORITE BET: COIN TOSS
My pick: TAILS (-102)
Research: In the previous 51 Super Bowls, tails has the advantage, 27-24. This is due to the way the head side of the coin is molded. To create the shape of the head engraved into the coin, a small percentage of metal is added to the head-side, creating a small weight imbalance, causing the heavier head-side to land face down more often and the tail-side face up…
…not really lol. The 27-24 stat is true though. Tails never fails.